IRR Oil and Gas Project Expected to Increase Up to 6.55%

7 contract immediately signed

The internal rate of return (IRR) of the oil and gas block using the gross spree contract refers to the Minister of Energy and  Mineral Resources Regulation No. 52/2017, no less competitive than referring to cost recovery contract. The IRR rate is predicted to rise  by 6.55%. Following the issuance of this new regulation, seven oil and gas contracts were signed shortly in early October.

EMR Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Arcandra Tahar, said that in simulations that have been conducted on  several oil and gas blocks, the actual results show that IRR gross split contract is better than cost recovery. This condition is much better  than when the gross split contract is still referring to the old rule, namely Ministerial Regulation 8/20 2017. In this simulation seen, once  the reference is changed to Ministerial Regulation 52/2017, IRR oil and gas blocks rose significantly.

In some oil and gas blocks, the IRR increase is about 2-5%. However, there are also oil and gas blocks in the IRR this drastically  up by 12%. However, this oil and gas IRR averaged an increase of 6.55%.

"We modified one of the progressive split components, namely the cumulative oil and gas production. Then, add new component of  progressive split, that is price We also improve split variable based on field characteristic he said.

This refinement is called to answer the complaints and suggestions of oil and gas companies. Referring to Ministerial Regulation  8/2017, the contractor's split of the initial five years is far below the contract with the cost recovery scheme, from about 90% to 80%.  Although, the contractor's allocation in the gross split contract will then be better than cost recovery in subsequent years.

"We have to make the contractor's share in the first five years not much different from the cost recovery system and after that be better  than cost recovery," said Arcandra.

He specifies that there are eight points of improvement in Ministerial Regulation 52 / 2017. In detail, on the cumulative factor  of production there is an additional split up to 10%, from the split production phase can rise up to 10%, the existence of a plan of  development (POD 2) split 3%, from split hyodgers sulphide (H2S) split could increase to 5%, and infrastructure availability factor could  boost split up to 4%.

Not only that, the additional split as an impact of oil and gas price movements is calculated based on the formula. This makes  the oil and gas company a chance to get an additional 11.25% split on oil prices of US $ 40 per barrel and 5% when its gas price is only US  $ 5 per million British thermal units (mmbtu).

"We also open the split limit that can be given from ministerial discretion so that oil and gas blocks can be developed economically" he  said. 

This is to avoid any oil and gas blocks that the government wants to develop, but can not be economical after all incentives are given. World Bank Mining Expert Bryan C Land revealed that the economy of the oil and gas blocks is significant if the gross split  contract refers to Ministerial Regulation 8/20 2017. However, the revised beleid has made the IRR and nett present value (NPV) of oil and  gas blocks no worse than contract costs recovery, even in some cases can be higher.

Of course it remains to be seen whether efficiency is successful, but at least incentives are available, "he said. Only, he saw that  the implementation of gross split contract would be difficult to implement. The current gross split system is too complicated and its  implementation may not be as expected. Especially with the unique condition of each oil and gas block and additional split through the  minister's discretion, then it is possible that each contract should be renegotiated when POD is submitted.

"Then, the revision of this fiscal regime needs to be followed by improvements in the non-fiscal regime if Indonesia wants to attract more  upstream oil and gas investment," said Bryan.

Wait for Taxation

Chairman of the Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) Christina Verchere states, changes in Ministerial Regulation 52/2017  quite enhance Indonesia's competitiveness in the oil and gas sector. However, it is waiting for certainty and clarity about the mechanism  of taxation that will be applied in this gross split contract. It asked the government to be careful in preparing this taxation mechanism so  as not to arise uncertainty.

"In the end, gross split and taxation contracts will have an impact on investors' economics," he said.

Arcandra said, the economic model used to compile the gross split tax refers to Government Regulation No. 27 of 2017.  However, PP 27/2017 itself only regulates taxation on oil and gas contract cost recovery. The latest progress in the preparation of the tax-free beleid of the gross split is the Ministry of Finance will invite the IPA.

 "The IPA will be invited to dialogue about the proposal we have submitted to the Ministry of Finance and convey its views," he said.

In his proposal, his party said that IPA wants a tax mechanism that is not much different from PP 27 / 2017. In line with  Christina, President Director of PT Pertamina Hulu Energi (PHE) Gunung Sardjono Hadi also ask for tax certainty.

According to him, by using Ministerial Regulation 52/2017, the termination block assigned to his side is quite economical. It is  noted that there is no tax treatment and asset rental cost equal to Offshore North West Java (ONWJ) Block.

"This means that the tax remains 36.25% consisting of PPH, if the VAT and PBB remain," he said.

While the asset lease pegged 3-5% multiplied fair value plus 70% discount. Previously, Pertamina through PT Pertamina Hulu  Energi has signed offshore oil contracts Offshore North Westjava using a gross split contract. However, this block contract refers to the old  regulation, Ministerial Regulation 8/2017.

After the contract was signed earlier this year, the split block has been revised to be higher because to boost its economy, from  57.5% to 73.5% for oil and 62.5% to 81% for gas. Together with the split increase, Pertamina Hulu Energi becomes more aggressive in its  investment.

Ready to Sign Contract

Gunung Sarjono added that his side is ready to sign the termination block contract assigned to him. It has submitted a proposal  for the development of these blocks to the ESDM Ministry. Then, with the issuance of Ministerial Decree 52/2017, the five blocks handed  over to PHE have already reached a sufficient economy.

"So there is an additional split 67% (with Ministerial Regulation 52/2017) .If we see from the contractor take and NPV better," he said, his  side will also continue to make efficiency.

He said the economy of the oil and gas block with the scheme of gross split contract can be achieved in two ways. First, the  contractor makes efficiency. Secondly, if a split addition of vaxiabel split and progressive split can not boost the economy, the contractor  may request an additional which is a ministerial discretion.

As is known, the government commissioned Pertamina to manage eight working areas that will expire the contract. The eight  working areas are Tuban Block, East Java (JOB Pertamina-PetroChina East Java); Ogan Komering Block, South Sumatera (JOB Pertamina- Talisman); Sanga-Sanga Block, East Kalimantan (Saka Energy, Southeast Sumatra Block (SES), Lampung (CNOOC SES Limited); Central  Block, East Kalimantan (Total E & P Indonesie); Attaka Block, East Kalimantan (Chevron), East Kalimantan Block (Chevron ) and North Sumatra Offshore Block, Aceh (Pertamina).

PHE will manage five blocks, namely Tuban Block, Ogan Komering, South-east Sumatra, Lampung and North Sumatra Offshore.  The other two blocks will be managed by a new subsidiary of PT Pertamina, PT Pertamina Hulu Indonesia (PHI). The entire block, said  Gunung, will be signed in the near future. "The eight blocks are targeted (signature contract) in late September or early October," he  explained.

Head of Special Unit for Oil and Gas Business Activities (SKK Migas) Amien Sunaryadi said that currently there is only one block  using the gross split contract. In the future, oil and gas block with cost recovery contract will decrease due to switch to gross split.

IN INDONESIA

IRR Proyek Migas Diperkirakan Naik Hingga 6,55 %

Tingkat pengembalian modal (internal rate of return/IRR) blok migas yang menggunakan kontrak gross sp/it mengacu  Peraturan Menteri ESDM No 52/2017, tidak kalah kompetitif jika dibandingkan mengacu kontrak cost recovery. Tingkat IRR diprediksi  bisa naik sekitar 6,55%. Pasca terbitnya aturan baru ini, tujuh kontrak migas segera diteken pada awal Oktober.

Wakil Menteri ESDM Arcandra Tahar mengatakan, dalam simulasi yang telah dilakukan pada beberapa blok migas, hasil simulai  justru menunjukkan IRR kontrak gross split lebih baik dibandingkan dengan cost recovery. Kondisi ini jauh lebih baik dibandingkan ketika  kontrak gross split masih mengacu aturan lama, yakni Peraturan Menteri 8/ 2017. Pada simulasi ini terlihat, begitu acuannya diubah  menjadi Peraturan Menteri 52/ 2017, IRR blok migas naik signifikan. 

Di beberapa blok migas, kenaikan IRR sekitar 2-5%. Namun, ada juga blok migas yang dalam siMulasi ini IRR-nya naik drastis  hingga 12%. Namun, IRR blok migas ini rata-rata naik 6,55%.

“Kami memodifikasi salah satu komponen progressive split, yakni kumulatif produksi migas. Kemudian, menambah komponen baru  progressive split, yaitu harga Kami juga memperbaiki variabel split berdasarkan karakteristik lapangan kata dia.

Perbaikan ini disebutnya untuk menjawab keluhan dan saran perusahaan migas. Pasalnya, mengacu Peraturan Menteri 8/ 2017, bagi hasil (split) kontraktor pada lima tahun awal memang jauh di bawah kontrak dengan skema cost recovery, yakni dari sekitar 90% ke 80%. Walaupun, jatah kontraktor dalam kontrak gross split ini kemudian akan lebih baik dibanding cost recovery di tahun-tahun  berikutnya.

“Kami harus membuat bagi hasil kontraktor pada lima tahun pertama tidak beda jauh dengan sistem cost recovery dan setelah itu  menjadi lebih baik dari cost recovery,” ujar Arcandra. 

Dia merinci, terdapat delapan poin perbaikan dalam Peraturan Menteri 52/ 2017. Rincinya, pada faktor kumulatif produksi  terdapat tambahan split hingga 10%, dari fase produksi split bisa naik hingga 10%, adanya rencana pengembangan lanjutan (plan of  development/ POD 2) menambah split 3%, dari kandungan hirodgen sulfida (H2S) split bisa meningkat sampai 5%, dan faktor  ketersediaan infrastruktur bisa mendongkrak split hingga 4%.

Tidak hanya itu, tambahan split sebagai dampak pergerakan harga minyak dan gas dihitung berdasarkan formula. Hal ini  membuat perusahaan migas berkesempatan mendapat tambahan split 11,25% pada harga minyak US$ 40 per barel dan 5% ketika harga  gas miliknya hanya US$ 5 per juta british thermal unit (mmbtu).

“Kami juga membuka batasan split yang bisa diberikan dari diskresi menteri sehingga blok migas bisa dikembangkan secara ekonomis"  tuturnya. Hal ini untuk menghindari adanya blok migas yang pemerintah ingin kembangkan, namun tidak bisa ekonomis setelah semua  insentif diberikan.

Ahli Pertambangan Bank Dunia Bryan C Land mengungkapkan, keekonomian blok migas turun signifikan jika kontrak gross split  mengacu pada Peraturan Menteri 8/ 2017. Namun, revisi beleid yang dilakukan telah membuat IRR dan nett present value (NPV) blok  migas tidak lebih buruk dari kontrak cost recovery, bahkan dalam beberapa kasus bisa lebih tinggi. 

Tentu saja masih harus diperhatikan apakah efisiensi berhasil dilakukan, tetapi setidaknya insentif sudah tersedia,” ujarnya.  Hanya saja, dia melihat bahwa penerapan kontrak gross split bakal sulit di implementasikan. Sistem gross split saat ini terlalu rumit dan  penerapannya bisa jadi tidak sesuai harapan. Terlebih dengan kondisi unik setiap blok migas dan tambahan split melalui diskresi menteri,  maka ada kemungkinan setiap kontrak harus direnegosiasi ketika POD diajukan.

“Kemudian, revisi rezim fiskal ini perlu diikuti dengan perbaikan di rezim non-fiskal jika Indonesia ingin menarik lebih banyak investasi  hulu migas,” tegas Bryan.

Tunggu Perpajakan

Ketua Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) Christina Verchere menyatakan, perubahan dalam Peraturan Menteri 52/2017  cukup meningkatkan daya saing Indonesia di sektor migas. Namun, pihaknya menunggu kepastian dan kejelasan soal mekanisme  perpajakan yang akan diterapkan dalam kontrak gross split ini. Pihaknya meminta pemerintah berhati-hati dalam menyusun mekanisme  perpajakan ini agar tidak timbul ketidakpastian.

“Pada akhirnya, kontrak gross split dan perpajakan akan berdampak pada keekonomian investor,” kata dia. 

Arcandra menuturkan, model ekonomi yang digunakannya untuk menyusun pajak gross split mengacu pada Peraturan  Pemerintah No 27 Tahun 2017. Namun, PP 27/2017 sendiri hanya mengatur perpajakan pada kontrak migas cost recovery. Progres  terbaru penyusunan beleid pajak gross split ini yakni Kementerian Keuangan akan mengundang IPA.

 “IPA akan diajak berdialog tentang proposal yang telah kami masukkan ke Kementerian Keuangan dan menyampaikan pandangannya,”  tuturnya.

Dalam proposalnya, pihaknya menyampaikan bahwa IPA menginginkan mekanisme pajak yang tidak jauh berbeda dengan PP  27/ 2017. Senada dengan Christina, Presiden Direktur PT Pertamina Hulu Energi (PHE) Gunung Sardjono Hadi juga meminta kepastian perpajakan.

Menurutnya, dengan menggunakan Peraturan Menteri 52/ 2017, blok terminasi yang ditugaskan ke pihaknya sudah cukup  ekonomis. Hal ini dengan catatan tidak ada perlakuan pajak dan biaya sewa aset sama dengan Blok Offshore North West Java (ONWJ).

“Artinya tax tetap 36,25% yang terdiri dari PPH, kalau PPN dan PBB tetap,” ujarnya. 

Sementara sewa aset dipatok 3-5% dikali fair value ditambah diskon 70%. Sebelumnya, Pertamina melalui PT Pertamina Hulu  Energi telah meneken kontrak migas Blok Offshore North Westjava menggunakan kontrak gross split. Namun, kontrak blok ini mengacu  pada peraturan lama, yakni Peraturan Menteri 8/2017. 

Pasca kontrak diteken awal tahun, split blok ini telah direvisi menjadi lebih tinggi lantaran untuk mendongkrak keekonomiannya, yakni dari 57,5% menjadi 73,5% untuk minyak dan 62,5% menjadi 81% untuk gas. Bersama dengan kenaikan split,  Pertamina Hulu Energi menjadi lebih agresif dalam investasi.

Siap Teken Kontrak

Gunung Sarjono menambahkan pihaknya siap meneken kontrak blok terminasi yang ditugaskan kepadanya. Pihaknya telah  mengirimkan proposal rencana pengembangan blok-blok ini kepada Kementerian ESDM. Kemudian, dengan terbitnya Peraturan Menteri  52/2017, lima blok yang diserahkan pengelolaannya ke PHE sudah mencapai keekonomian yang mencukupi.

"Jadi ada tambahan split 67% (dengan Peraturan Menteri 52/ 2017). Ini kalau kami lihat dari contractor take maupun NPV lebih bagus,”  kata dia, Pihaknya juga akan terus melakukan efisiensi.

Dikatakannya, keekonomian blok migas dengan skema kontrak gross split ini dapat dicapai dengan dua cara. Pertama,  kontraktor melakukan efisiensi. Kedua, jika memang tambahan split dari vaxiabel split dan progressive split tidak dapat mendongkrak  keekonomian, kontraktor dapat meminta tambahan yang merupakan diskresi menteri.

Seperti diketahui, pemerintah menugaskan Pertamina untuk mengelola delapan wilayah kerja yang akan habis masa  kontraknya. Delapan wilayah kerja tersebut yakni Blok Tuban, Jawa Timur (JOB Pertamina-PetroChina East Java); Blok Ogan Komering, Sumatera Selatan (JOB Pertamina-Talisman); Blok Sanga-Sanga, Kalimantan Timur (Saka Energi; Blok Southeast Sumatera (SES), Lampung (CNOOC SES Limited); Blok Tengah, Kalimantan Timur (Total E&P Indonesie); Blok Attaka, Kalimantan Timur (Chevron), Blok East Kalimantan (Chevron) dan Blok North Sumatera Offshore, Aceh (Pertamina).

PHE akan mengelola lima blok, yaitu Blok Tuban, Ogan Komering, South-east Sumatera, Lampung, dan North Sumatera  Offshore. Sementara dua blok lainnya akan dikelola anak usaha PT Pertamina yang baru, yakni PT Pertamina Hulu Indonesia (PHI).  Seluruh blok tersebut, kata Gunung, akan diteken kontraknya dalam waktu dekat “Delapan blok itu targetnya (tanda tangan kontrak)  akhir September atau awal Oktober,” jelasnya.

Kepala Satuan Kerja Khusus Pelaksana Kegiatan Usaha Minyak dan Gas Bumi (SKK Migas) Amien Sunaryadi mengatakan, saat  ini memang hanya satu blok yang menggunakan kontrak gross split. Ke depannya, blok migas dengan kontrak cost recovery akan  semakin berkurang karena beralih ke gross split.

Investor Daily, Page-7, Monday, Sept 11, 2017.

Lemigas Will Determine the Fate of Kepodang

The decision of Petronas Carigali Muriah Ltd to set Kepodang Field in force majeure or majeure in July 2017 then got many puzzles. The cause of force majeure is that production continues to decline. Currently Lemigas-Oil Research and Development Center for  Oil and Gas Technology-is conducting an investigation into the incident.

The puzzle is because the field in Muriah Block, Central Java has just been produced in August 2015, but it is predicted to be  empty in 2018. Indicator, production continues to decline from initially 116 mmscfd to 80 mmscfd.

Head of Program and Communication Division SKK Migas Wisnu Prabawa Taher is still reluctant to explain more related to the  circumstances of this force majeure. It is still awaiting the study which is still being carried out by Lemigas.

"Still waiting for the latest study on subsurface, we will update soon,"

While Vice Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Arcandra Tahar said it has not received reports from Lemigas, so can not take action.

"It may still be evaluated.Waiting for subsurface of Lemigas after that we can act," he said.

Bambang Widarsono, Head of Oil and Gas Research and Technology Center Lemigas has not replied to confirm when the  completion of the investigation on Kepodang.

Senior Manager of Corporate Affairs & Administration Petrnonas Carigali Indonesia Andiono Setiawan disclosed Kepodang  related issues, it will discuss and coordinate with PT Perusahaan Lislirik Negara (PLN) and PT Kalimantan Java Gas, a joint venture of PT  Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN) and PT Bakrie and Brothers Tbk as owner of Kalija pipeline.

"Whatever the outcome of Lemigas, we wait," he said.

Meanwhile, Executive Director of Reforminer Institute Komaidi Notonegoro argues, force majeure is the state of the parties in the contract that can not meet the obligations, because things that can not be predicted. For example, natural disasters, national  emergencies, or similar events.

If gas pressure is lacking due to unforeseen circumstances (force majeure) and Petronas can prove it, it should not be penalized  from PLN.

"But if the gas pressure is less because it is not the unexpected situation, Petronas is responsible," he explained.

IN INDONESIA

Lemigas Akan Tentukan Nasib Kepodang

Keputusan Petronas Carigali Muriah Ltd monetapkan Lapangan Kepodang dalam keadaan force majeure atau kahar pada Juli  2017 lalu mendapat banyak teka-teki. Penyebab force majeure adalah produksinya terus menurun. Saat ini Lemigas-Pusat Penelitian dan  Pengembangan Teknologi Minyak dan Gas Bumi-sedang melakukan investigasi atas kejadian itu.

Teka-teki itu lantaran lapangan di Blok Muriah, Jawa Tengah ini baru saja produksi Agustus 2015, tapi diprediksi kosong pada  tahun 2018. Indikatornya, produksi terus menurun dari awalnya 116 mmscfd menjadi 80 mmscfd.

Kepala Divisi Program dan Komunikasi SKK Migas Wisnu Prabawa Taher masih enggan menjelaskan lebih banyak terkait  keadaan force majeure ini. Pihaknya masih menunggu kajian yang masih terus dilakukan oleh Lemigas. 

"Masih menunggu kajian terbaru mengenai subsurface, nanti secepatnya akan kita update," 

Sementara Wakil Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) Arcandra Tahar mengatakan, pihaknya belum menerima  laporan dari Lemigas, jadi belum bisa melakukan tindakan. 

"Mungkin masih dievaluasi. Menunggu subsurface dari Lemigas setelah itu kita bisa bertindak," katanya.

Bambang Widarsono, Kepala Pusat Penelitian dan Teknologi Minyak dan Gas Bumi Lemigas belum membalas konfirmasi  kapan  selesainya investigasi pada Kepodang.

Senior Manager Corporate Affair  & Administration Petrnonas Carigali Indonesia Andiono Setiawan mengungkapkan terkait  masalah Kepodang, pihaknya akan diskusi dan koordinasi dengan PT Perusahaan Lislirik Negara (PLN) dan PT Kalimantan Jawa Gas,  perusahaan patungan PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN) dan PT Bakrie and Brothers Tbk sebagai pemilik pipa Kalija. 

"Yang pasti apapun hasil dari Lemigas, kami tunggu," ungkap dia.

Sementara itu, Direktur Eksekutif Reforminer Institute Komaidi Notonegoro berpendapat, force majeure merupakan keadaan  pihak-pihak dalam kontrak yang tidak dapat memenuhi kewajiban, karena hal-hal yang tidak dapat diprediksi. Misalnya, bencana alam,  keadaan darurat nasional, atau peristiwa-peristiwa sejenis itu. 

Jika tekanan gas yang kurang karena hal tidak diduga (force majeure) dan Petronas bisa membuktikan, seharusnya tidak bisa  dikenakan penalti dari PLN. 

"Tapi kalau tekanan gas kurang karena bukan keadaan yang tidak diduga itu, Petronas yang tanggungjawab," terangnya.

Kontan, Page-18, Monday, Sept 11, 2017.

KKKS Still Evaluate the Auction of 15 Oil and Gas Blocks

The Cooperation Contract Contractor (KKKS) is still likely to evaluate its participation in the 15-block oil and gas auction that has been offered since last May 2017. Whereas the Regulation of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) regarding gross  split has been revised some time ago.

Erwin Maryoto, Vice President of Public and Government Affairs of ExxonMobil Indonesia, said it appreciated the government's  efforts to revise the gross split scheme. "The government is listening to our inputs, it will be very interesting," Erwin said last week.

To that end, EXXonMobil continues to evaluate the oil and gas blocks offered.

"We see which one fits our portfolio, ExxonMobil has certain criteria, not just economical, but look at where the oil or gas focus is," he  said.

President Director of Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) Christina Verchere said investment decisions in upstream oil and  gas will be handed over to each oil and gas company.

"We look forward to the best for members who follow this year's auction as well as contract renewal negotiations," Christina said.

President and General Manager of Total EP Indonesia Arividya Novianto said, it is still evaluating the auction of oil and gas  blocks this year. ESDM Ministry itself finally on Friday (8/9) gives blessing for Total EP gets 39% stake Mahakam. In the near future, Total  EP will get an official letter about it.

IN INDONESIA

KKKS Masih Mengevaluasi Lelang 15 Blok Migas

Kontraktor Kontrak Kerja Sama (KKKS) tampaknya masih akan mengevaluasi keikutsertaannya dalam lelang 15 blok migas yang  sudah ditawarkan sejak Mei 2017 lalu. Padahal Peraturan Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) mengenai gross split sudah  direvisi beberapa waktu lalu.

Erwin Maryoto, Vice President Public and Goverment Affairs ExxonMobil Indonesia, mengatakan, pihaknya menghargai upaya  pemerintah merevisi skema gross split. "Pemerintah mendengarkan berbagai masukan kami. Ini akan sangat menarik," kata Erwin pekan  lalu.

Untuk itu, EXXonMobil terus melakukan evaluasi blok-blok migas yang ditawarkan. 

"Kami melihat mana yang cocok dengan portofolio kami. ExxonMobil memiliki kriteria tertentu, tidak hanya ekonomis, tapi melihat  minyak atau gas fokusnya di mana," ujarnya.

Presiden Direktur Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) Christina Verchere mengatakan, keputusan investasi di hulu migas  Indonesia akan diserahkan ke masing-masing perusahaan migas. 

"Kami mengharapkan yang terbaik bagi anggota yang mengikuti lelang tahun ini dan juga negosiasi perpanjangan kontrak," kata  Christina.

Presiden dan General Manager Total EP Indonesia Arividya Novianto bilang, pihaknya masih mengevaluasi lelang blok migas  tahun ini. Kementerian ESDM sendiri akhirnya pada Jumat (8/9) memberikan restu bagi Total EP mendapat 39% saham Mahakam. Dalam  waktu dekat, Total EP akan mendapatkan surat resmi soal itu.

Kontan, Page-18, Monday, Sept 11, 2017.

Gross Split Higher Return Guarantee

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has revised the ministerial regulation on oil and gas revenue sharing. The  government provides eight incentives to oil and gas contractors for investment in upstream oil and gas more attractive. Executive Director  of Reforminer Institute Komaidi Notonegoro rate, the revision of the rules on gross split gives a positive sentiment for the oil and gas  investment climate. The difference lies in the velocity side of the money that the contractor earns.

Nevertheless, the new regulation provides a better guarantee of the internal rate of return (IRR) that still attracts investors to  explore new oil and gas fields.

"It is not as fast as cost recovery, but if the new regulation says that the IRR will be positive, I think the contractor can guarantee the  profit," said Komaidi.

The government and contractors should indeed benefit from oil and gas investment. From the government side, state revenues  increase, while contractors still benefit from investment in upstream oil and gas sector to continue to explore new oil fields.

"If you only see the exploitation side of the source of tax revenue and do not think about the interests of investors, tax revenues from oil  and gas will remain slow" Komaidi said.

The government has indeed calibrated 12 oil and gas fields to provide higher IRR. The lowest IRR rate was set at 2.1 percent to  a high of 15.7 percent. The addition of IRR is done through a larger gross split scheme of 6.5 percent of the old gross split.

Thus, the average IRR obtained in the new gross split is 28.8 percent, the IRR is higher than the average IRR when using a cost  recovery system that is only 24.8 percent.

President of the Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) Christina Verchere appreciated the revision of the rule. According to  Christina, oil and gas investment is closely related to the business climate, legal certainty, and competitive fiscal issues.

The decline in the profitability of oil and gas business makes investors more selective in investing their capital. Only oil and gas  projects with competitive returns will be done. With the change in the rules of profit sharing, Christina believes the competitiveness of oil  and gas industry in Indonesia is increasing.

Appreciation is also given for incentive increment to contractors in addition to progressive split (in gas prices), as well as a  progressive split increase in the early stages of production. Christina also appreciated the incentives for the development of the field  beyond the initial plan of development.

"We are also pleased that the option of contract type for PSC extension is still maintained," he added.

IPJ Executive Director Marjolijn Wajong assessed that the new scheme of gross split is more interesting than ever before.  However, contractors are still recalculating when compared to cost recovery.

"Every field is different, some are better, some are lower, some are big," Marjolijn said.

IN INDONESIA

Gross Split Jamin Return Lebih Tinggi

Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) telah merevisi peraturan menteri tentang bagi hasil migas. Pemerintah  memberikan delapan insentif kepada kontraktor migas agar investasi di hulu migas lebih menarik. Direktur Eksekutif Reforminer Institute  Komaidi Notonegoro menilai, revisi aturan tentang gross split tersebut memberikan sentimen positif bagi iklim investasi migas. Perbedaan terletak pada sisi perputaran uang yang diperoleh kontraktor.

Meski demikian, peraturan baru itu memberikan jaminan tingkat pengembalian biaya investasi (internal rate of return/IRR)  yang Iebih baik sehingga masih menarik investor untuk melakukan eksplorasi lapangan migas baru.

"Memang (balik modal dengan metode gross split) tidak secepat cost recovery. Tapi, kalau di peraturan baru dikatakan bahwa IRR akan  positif, saya kira kontraktor sudah dapat jaminan akan untung,” kata Komaidi.

Pemerintah dan kontraktor memang harus diuntungkan dalam investasi migas. Dari sisi pemerintah, penerimaan negara  bertambah, sedangkan kontraktor tetap mendapat keuntungan dari investasi di sektor hulu migas agar tetap mau mengeksplorasi Iadang  minyak baru.

"Kalau hanya melihat sisi eksploitasi yang menjadi sumber penerimaan pajak dan tidak memikirkan kepentingan investor, penerimaan  pajak dari migas akan tetap lambat" kata Komaidi.

Pemerintah memang telah melakukan kalibrasi terhadap 12 lapangan migas untuk memberikan IRR yang lebih tinggi. Tingkat  IRR terendah ditetapkan 2,1 persen hingga yang tertinggi 15,7 persen. Penambahan IRR dilakukan melalui skema gross split yang lebih  besar 6,5 persen dari gross split lama.

Dengan begitu, rata-rata IRR yang didapatkan pada gross split baru sebesar 28,8 persen, IRR tersebut lebih tinggi dibandingkan  rata-rata IRR saat menggunakan sistem cost recovery yang hanya 24,8 persen.

Presiden Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) Christina Verchere mengapresiasi revisi aturan tersebut. Menurut Christina,  investasi migas terkait erat dengan iklim usaha, kepastian hukum, dan persoalan fiskal yang kompetitif.

Penurunan tingkat keuntungan dari bisnis migas membuat investor semakin selektif menanamkan modalnya. Hanya proyek  migas dengan imbal hasil kompetitif yang akan dikerjakan. Dengan perubahan aturan tentang bagi hasil tersebut, Christina meyakini daya  saing industri migas di Indonesia semakin meningkat. 

Apresiasi juga diberikan untuk kenaikan insentif kepada kontraktor penambahan progressive split (dalam harga gas), serta  kenaikan progressive split pada tahap awal produksi. Christina juga mengapresiasi adanya insentif untuk pengembangan Iapangan di Iuar  rencana pengembangan (plan of development) awal. 

"Kami juga senang opsi tipe kontrak untuk PSC perpanjangan masih dipertahankan,” imbuhnya.

Direktur Eksekutif IPA Marjolijn Wajong menilai, skema baru gross split lebih menarik dibandingkan sebelumnya. Namun,  kontraktor masih melakukan kalkulasi ulang jika dibandingkan dengan cost recovery. 

"Setiap lapangan pasti berbeda. Ada yang Iebih bagus, ada yang lebih rendah, ada yang besar" kata Marjolijn.

Jawa Pos, Page-6, Monday, Sept 11, 2017

There is an Uncertainty Factor

The government needs to resolve the uncertainty factor despite the revision of the profit sharing contract by extending the space for the addition of profit sharing or split for the contractor.

The ESDM Ministry is tired of issuing the Regulation of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources N0. 52/2017 on Amendment to Regulation of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 8/2017 on the Gross Split Revenue Contract.

Bryan C Land, Lead Extractives Specialist of World Bank, said the government still needs to take care of other aspects that make the certainty factor trying to decrease.

"I affirm together with the fiscal changes, other non-fiscal aspects are also very important. So, we heard from the question and answer session that oil and gas companies are right about the condition if more and more conditions are solved, the better and it is the same challenge for every country, "he said in a socialization session on Friday (8/9).

In the socialization session, business actors questioned the tax imposition mechanism because the profit sharing did not include the taxes borne by the contractor. Whereas all the costs on the gross split contract include all taxes issued can no longer be returned through the cost recovery scheme because the division of government and contractor parts is done before netto.

In addition, the space for the addition of a share of the ministerial discretion that is no longer restricted is considered uncertain because it is based on the minister's unknown considerations of what factors influence it. Another factor of uncertainty is also included in the list of questions that is about there is no higher rule regarding gross split contracts.

The question arises because a gross split contract that is only regulated in the form of a ministerial regulation may change when there is a ministerial change. However, Land insists the government has made improvements with the previous scheme.

And the 12 field that became the reference, the application of gross split only gives an additional rate of return on investment (internal rate of return / IRR). With the lowest IRR addition range of 2.1% to the highest of 15.7%, the average IRR addition through the new gross split scheme is 6.5% greater than the old gross split.

Under the scheme, the average IRR obtained in the new gross split is 28.8% or higher than the IRR average in the production sharing contract (PSC) cost recovery of 24.8%.

Based on data from Wood Mackenzie, IRR in Indonesia with a gross split of 22.3% and PSC cost recovery 24.8%. The data shows the scheme is no better than other countries such as Australia with 30.4%, Papua New Guinea 38.2%, Ireland 40.3% and England 41, S%.

"Other countries with the same investment climate are working to make more interesting provisions. So we have to see, "he said.

LICENSE

Energy observer from Trisakti University, Pri Agung Rakhmanto, said that the government needs to solve ease of doing business problems to improve the investment climate. He calls for improvement in licensing, bureaucracy, regulatory consistency and respect for sanctity of contract.

According to him, this change is still too small impact because it only uses the previous condition ie Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation no. 8/2017 as a comparison.

"To get to the stage of attracting and bringing in more investment, I think still need to prove and solve the things or other problems that become the key ease of doing business," he said.

As is known, the government adds split weight and new variables that can improve the economy through Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation no. 52/2017. In addition, additional revenue-sharing was obtained in the initial phase of development when the contractor has not been able to enjoy the production. Then, the additional space for the results of the minister's discretion is no longer limited to 5%.

President of the Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) Christina Verchere expects the revision to bring fresh air to investment in the upstream oil and gas sector.

However, he considered the work of the government has not been completed because the final share obtained by the contractor does not include tax. According to him, the uncertain tax factor can wobble the government's efforts to improve the economics of field development through the addition of profit sharing.

"We ask that the mechanism of taxation be clarified and ask the government not to increase the space of other uncertainty that could be contrary to the positive performance that has been done on the gross split," he said.

Meanwhile, PT Pertamina Hulu Energi (PHE) President Director, Gunung Sardjono Hadi, said that the improvements are quite helpful, especially in the management of block of contracts assigned to Pertamina.

If there are changes in the conditions that make the economics of the development of the shrinkage field, two things to be done are cost efficiency as well as additional proposals split from ministerial discretion.

"the Room two, under our control is cost efficiency, the second we can ask for additional [from the minister's discretion]," he said.

Meanwhile, proposals for new contracts on eight contract-deprived working areas have been submitted to the government. According to him, the new contract is targeted to be signed at the end of September or early October this year.

"It means that the eight blocks are targeted by the end of September or early October [contract signature]," he said.

IN INDONESIA

Ada Faktor Ketidakpastian

Pemerintah perlu menyelesain Faktor ketidakpastian kendati sudah melakukan revisi aturan kontrak bagi hasil dengan memperluas ruang penambahan bagi hasil atau split bagi kontraktor.

Kementerian ESDM lelah mengeluarkan Peraturan Menteri ESDM N0. 52/2017 tentang Perubahan atas Peraturan Menteri ESDM No. 8/2017 tentang Kontrak Bagi Hasil Gross Split.

Bryan C Land, Lead Extractives Specialist World Bank, mengatakan pemerintah masih perlu membereskan aspek lainnya yang membuat faktor kepastian berusaha menurun.

“Saya menegaskan bersamaan dengan perubahan fiskal, aspek nonfiskal lain juga sangat penting. Jadi, kami mendengar dari sesi tanya jawab, perusahaan-perusahaan migas benarnya tentang kondisi jika semakin banyak kondisi itu diselesaikan, akan semakin baik dan hal itu merupakan tantangan yang sama bagi setiap negara,” ujarnya dalam sesi sosialisasi, Jumat (8/9).

Dalam sesi sosialisasi, pelaku usaha mempertanyakan soal mekanisme pengenaan pajak karena bagi hasil yang diperoleh belum termasuk pajak yang ditanggung kontraktor. Padahal seluruh biaya pada kontrak gross split termasuk seluruh pajak yang dikeluarkan tidak lagi bisa dikembalikan melalui skema cost recovery karena pembagian bagian pemerintah dan kontraktor dilakukan secara kotor.

Selain itu, ruang penambahan bagi hasil dari diskresi menteri yang kini tidak lagi dibatasi pun dianggap tidak pasti karena didasarkan dari pertimbangan menteri yang tidak diketahui apa saja faktor yang mempengaruhinya. Faktor ketidakpastian lainnya yang juga masuk dalam daftar pertanyaan yakni mengenai ada tidak aturan yang lebih tinggi mengenai kontrak gross split.

Pertanyaan itu muncul karena kontrak gross split yang hanya diatur dalam bentuk peraturan menteri bisa saja berubah ketika ada pergantian menteri. Namun, Land menegaskan pemerintah telah melakukan perbaikan dengan skema sebelumnya.

Dan 12 lapangan yang menjadi acuan, penerapan gross split hanya memberikan tambahan angka pengembalian investasi (internal rate of return/IRR). Dengan rentang penambahan IRR terendah sebesar 2,1 % hingga yang tertinggi 15,7 %, rata-rata penambahan IRR melalui skema gross split baru lebih besar 6,5 % dari gross split lama.

Dengan skema itu, rerata IRR yang didapatkan pada gross split baru sebesar 28,8% atau lebih tinggi dari rerata IRR pada kontrak bagi hasil produksi (production sharing contract/PSC) cost recovery yakni 24,8%.

Berdasarkan data Wood Mackenzie, IRR di Indonesia dengan gross split lama sebesar 22,3% dan PSC cost recovery 24,8%. Data itu menunjukkan skema itu tidak lebih baik dari negara lain seperti Australia dengan 30,4%, Papua Nugini 38,2%, Irlandia 40,3% dan Inggris 41,S%.

“Negara-negara lain dengan iklim investasi yang sama sedang berupaya membuat ketentuan- ketentuan yang lebih menarik. Jadi kami harus melihat," katanya.

PERIZINAN 

Pemerhati energi dari Universitas Trisakti Pri Agung Rakhmanto menilai pemerintah perlu menyelesaikan masalah kemudahan berusaha (ease of doing business) untuk bisa memperbaiki iklim investasi. Dia menyebut perlu ada perbaikan pada perizinan, birokrasi, konsistensi peraturan dan menghormati kontrak yang berjalan (sanctity of contract).

Menurutnya, perubahan ini masih terlalu kecil dampaknya karena hanya menggunakan kondisi sebelumnya yakni Peraturan Menteri ESDM No. 8/2017 sebagai pembanding.

“Untuk sampai ke tahap menarik dan mendatangkan investasi lagi, menurut saya masih perlu pembuktian dan penyelesaian hal-hal atau masalah lain yang menjadi kunci ease of doing business,” katanya.

Seperti diketahui, pemerintah menambah bobot split dan variabel baru yang bisa meningkatkan keekonomian melalui Peraturan Menteri ESDM No. 52/2017. Selain itu, tambahan bagi hasil pun didapatkan di fase awal pengembangan ketika kontraktor belum bisa menikmati hasil produksi.  Kemudian, ruang tambahan bagi hasil dari diskresi menteri pun tidak lagi dibatasi sebesar 5%.

Presiden Indonesian Petroleum Association (IPA) Christina Verchere mengharapkan revisi itu membawa angin segar terhadap investasi di sektor hulu minyak dan gas bumi.

Namun, dia menilai kerja pemerimah belum usai karena bagi hasil akhir yang didapatkan kontraktor belum termasuk pajak. Menurutnya, faktor pajak yang belum pasti bisa menggoyah upaya pemerintah untuk memperbaiki keekonomian pengembangan lapangan melalui penambahan bagi hasil.

“Kami meminta agar mekanisme perpajakan diperjelas dan meminta pemerintah agar tidak menambah ruang ketidakpastian lainnya yang bisa bertentangan dengan kinerja positif yang telah dilakukan pada gross split,” tuturnya.

Sementara itu, Presiden Direktur PT Pertamina Hulu Energi (PHE) Gunung Sardjono Hadi mengatakan perbaikan itu cukup membantu khususnya dalam pengelolaan blok habis kontrak yang ditugaskan kepada Pertamina.

Bila terdapat perubahan kondisi yang membuat keekonomian pengembangan lapangan susut, dua hal yang akan dilakukan yakni efisiensi biaya juga usulan tambahan split dari diskresi menteri.

“Roomnya dua, yang under control kita adalah cost efficiency, yang kedua kita bisa minta tambahan [dari diskresi menteri],” katanya.

Adapun, proposal untuk kontrak baru pada delapan wilayah kerja yang habis kontrak telah disampaikan kepada pemerintah. Menurutnya, kontrak baru ditargetkan bisa diteken pada akhir September atau awal Oktober tahun ini.

"Artinya delapan blok itu targetnya akhir September atau awal Oktober [tanda tangan kontrak]," tuturnya.

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-28, Monday, Sept 11, 2017

US Oil Production & Demand Drops

The threat of hurricane Irma and the decline in the number of rigs operating in the United States lowered WTI oil prices to as low as US $ 47.48 per barrel by the end of Friday's trading (8/9).

At the close of trade Friday (8/9), WTI oil price of the most active contract in October 2017 fell 1.61 points or 3.28% to US $ 47.48 per barrel. Meanwhile, the price of Brent oil the most active contract in November 2017 fell 0.71 points or 1.30% to US $ 53.78 per barrel.

Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity bank commander Eugen Weinberg, said oil prices fell drastically on concern US demand was dampened by Irma storm which is one of the strongest storms projected to hit the US in the near future.

The estimated Irma storm has wind speeds of up to 298 km per hour is the second major storm that threatens Uncle Sam in the past two weeks. Earlier, Harvey storms put the US close to 25% of oil refining capacity and cut about 8% of total oil production.

"Storms have a long-term impact on refinery and industry demand," Weinberg said

Senior Market Analyst for Price Futures Group Phil Flynn said market players were worried about the destruction of US crude demand for a storm. This sentiment makes market participants to sell. In addition to the demand for crude oil, gasoline consumption and 

other transportation fuels will falter due to hurricane Irma, especially in the southeastern United States. The reason, people are reluctant to travel.

On the production side, the number of oil rigs operating in the US has fallen in four consecutive weeks as the storm in some parts of Uncle Sam's territory.

Baker Hughes Incorporated said the number of US oil rigs in the week ending Friday (8/9) reduced three wells to 756 points of drilling. Despite the decline, the number is much higher than the 414 rigs last year, the number of rigs to be an early indicator of rising or falling US oil production volume. Decrease the rig in as Harvei and Irma storms drew oil drilling activity in the US Gulf and Eagle Ford in Texas down, giving rise to a negative sentiment on the prospect of adding US oil production in the short term.

The reason, team analysts Simmons & Co. estimates that the total number of oil and natural gas rigs in the US will continue to increase to 863 rigs by 2017, 932 rigs by 2018, and 1,078 rigs by 2019. Throughout 2017, oil and gas rigs total only 855 wells. The year before, the number of rigs was at the level of 509 wells, down from 2015 by 978 rigs.

Despite announcing production cuts due to the storm, exploration and production companies (E & P) are still planning to spend large capital expenditures. Financial services analyst Cowen & Co said the average E & P company's capital expenditure rose 49% year on year (yoy) in 2017.

As oil drilling increases, U.S. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said US oil production would reach 9.4 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2017, up 5.62% from 8.9 million bpd in 2016. Next year, production volume will reach record highs , ie 9.9 million bpd.

Natixis estimates that excess supply that overshadow the market to make oil prices tend to be depressed. WTI prices at the end of third and fourth quarter of 2017 tend to stagnate at the level of US $ 47 per barrel, so the average price during this year is only US $ 49 per barrel.

Throughout 2017, the global oil market is estimated to have a surplus of 190,000 bpd. This volume tends to decline because in the quarter I / 201 7 surplus levels reached 970,000 bpd.

IN INDONESIA

Produksi & Permintaan Minyak AS Merosot

     Ancaman badai Irma dan merosotnya jumlah rig yang beroperasi di Amerika Serikat menurunkan harga minyak WTI ke level US$ 47,48 per barel pada akhir perdagangan Jumat (8/9).

Pada penutupan perdagangan Jumat (8/9), harga minyak WTI kontrak teraktif Oktober 2017 turun 1,61 poin atau 3,28% menuju US$ 47,48 per barel. Adapun, harga minyak Brent kontrak teraktif November 2017 turun 0,71 poin atau 1,30% menjadi US$ 53,78 per barel.

Kepala Riset Komoditas Commers bank Eugen Weinberg menuturkan, harga minyak turun drastis karena kekhawatiran menurunnya permintaan AS akibat terjadinya badai Irma yang merupakan salah satu badai paling kuat yang diproyeksi sudah melanda AS dalam waktu dekat ini.

Badai Irma yang diestimasi memiliki kecepatan angin hingga 298 km per jam merupakan badai besar kedua yang mengancam Paman Sam dalam dua pekan terakhir. Sebelumnya, badai Harvey membuat AS menutup sekitar 25 % kapasitas penyulingan minyak dan memangkas sekitar 8% total produksi minyak.

“Badai memiliki dampak yang panjang terhadap permintaan kilang dan industri,” tutur Weinberg

Senior Market Analyst Price Futures Group Phil Flynn menyampaikan, pelaku pasar mengkhawatirkan kehancuran permintaan minyak mentah AS akibat serangan badai. Sentimen ini membuat pelaku pasar melakukan aksi jual. Selain permintaan minyak mentah, konsumsi bensin dan bahan bakar transportasi lainnya akan goyah akibat badai Irma, terutama di wilayah tenggara AS. Pasalnya, masyarakat enggan untuk bepergian.

Di sisi produksi, jumlah rig minyak yang beroperasi di AS turun merosot dalam empat pekan berturut-turut seiring dengan berlangsungnya badai di sejumlah wilayah Paman Sam.

Seperti dikutip dari Reuters, Baker Hughes Incorporated menyebutkan jumlah rig minyak AS dalam sepekan yang berakhir Jumat (8/9) berkurang tiga sumur menjadi 756 titik pengeboran. Kendati berkurang, jumlah tersebut jauh lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan 414 rig pada tahun lalu, Jumlah rig menjadi indikator awal naik atau turunnya volume produksi minyak AS. 

   Penurunan rig disaat serangan badai Harvei dan Irma membuat aktivitas pengeboran minyak di Teluk AS dan Eagle Ford di Texas turun sehingga menimbulkan sentimen negatif terhadap prospek penambahan produksi minyak AS dalam jangka pendek.

Pasalnya, tim analis Simmons & Co. memperkirakan, jumlah total rig minyak dan gas alam di AS akan terus meningkat menjadi 863 rig pada 2017, 932 rig pada 2018, dan 1.078 rig pada 2019. Sepanjang 2017, total rig minyak dan gas hanya mencapai 855 sumur. Tahun Ialu, jumlah rig berada di level 509 sumur, turun dari 2015 sebanyak 978 rig.

Meskipun mengumumkan pemangkasan produksi akibat badai, perusahaan eksplorasi dan produksi (E&P) masih berencana mengeluarkan belanja modal yang besar. Laporan analis jasa keuangan Cowen & Co mengungkapkan, rerata belanja modal 64 perusahaan E&P naik 49% year on year (yoy) pada 2017.

Seiring bertambahnya instalasi pengeboran minyak, U.S. Energy information Administration (EIA) menyebutkan produksi minyak AS akan mencapai 9,4 juta barel per hari (bph) pada 2017 atau naik 5,62% dibandingkan dengan capaian 8,9 juta bph pada 2016. Tahun depan, volume produksi akan mencapai rekor tertinggi, yakni 9,9 juta bph.

Natixis memperkirakan berlebihnya pasokan yang membayangi pasar membuat harga minyak cenderung tertekan. Harga WTI pada akhir kuartal III dan IV 2017 cenderung stagnan di level US$ 47 per barel, sehingga rerata harga sepanjang Tahun ini hanya mencapai US$ 49 per barel.

Sepanjang 2017, pasar minyak global diperkirakan mengalami surplus sejumlah 190.000 bph. Volume ini cenderung menurun karena pada kuartal I /201 7 tingkat surplus mencapai 970.000 bph.

Bisnis Indonesia, Page-16, Monday, Sept 11, 2017