Upstream oil and gas revenues up to May 2018 reached US $ 6.9 billion or 58 percent of the target set in the 2018 State Budget (APBN) of US $ 11.9 billion. The improving world oil price is one of the factors in achieving the target of upstream oil and gas revenues this year.
"From the upstream side, we are surplus. The state revenue position is entirely US $ 6.9 billion. It comes from total revenue deducted by cost recovery, the rest is shared between the government and the contractor, plus taxes. This means that if asked the difference between revenue and production costs, its position is now a surplus, "said Head of Special Unit for Upstream Oil and Gas Business Activities (SKK Migas) Amien Sunaryadi.
According to him, the country's revenue is fully entered into the state budget. In the APBN 2018, Indonesia crude price (ICP) assumption is set at US $ 48 per barrel. Oil and gas lifting production is set at 2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (bsmph), consisting of crude oil of 800 thousand barrels per day (bpd) and natural gas 1.2 million bsmph. Asked about the budget for fuel subsidy (BBM), Head of SKK Migas Amien Sunaryadi said it was entirely the authority of the government.
"From us, the upstream side pays the budget to the state budget. Furthermore, it is up to the government where it will be allocated, "he said.
Concerned about the impact of the implementation of gross split mechanism on the investment climate of oil and gas, Amien Sunaryadi ensures investors welcome the policy.
"Some say gross split makes investors uninterested, that's not right," he said.
Amien exemplifies, from January to June this year, there are five companies that signed the contract with a gross split scheme. That's good. Compared since 2015 has terminated 80 working areas (WK), meaning the contract did not perform, "he said.
He believes, with the signing of new contracts now, in the next 5-10 years national oil lifting increases, in line with many new findings. Head of Program and Communication Division of SKK Migas Wisnu Prabawa Taher added that oil and gas lifting performance during January to May 2018 reached 1.916 million bsmph. The realization is about 96% of the oil and gas lifting target set in the APBN of 2 million bsmph. He explained, from 1.916 million bsmph, the realization of oil lifting reached 758 thousand bpd, or about 95% of the target of 800 thousand bpd. While the realization of gas lifting reached 1.158 million bsmph, about 97% of the target of 1.2 million bsmph.
Vishnu said, PT Chevron Pacific Indonesia produces the most oil, reaching 212,316 bph. That number is slightly lower than the target of 213,551 bph (99.42%). The biggest gas achievement comes from BP Berau Ltd (Tangguh) of 1.03 million MMSCFD or 104% of the target of 1 million.
"For the achievement of cost recovery funds (cost recovery) until the end of May has been US $ 4.7 billion or 47% of the target of the 2018 state budget," he said.
Wisnu Prabawa also stated that the realization of oil and gas investment in January-May 2018 reached US $ 3.7 billion, about 26% of this year's target of US $ 14.2 billion.
"Realization is low because a number of programs are waiting for onstream schedules. For example, drilling activities are still waiting for land readiness. But we remain optimistic that this year's investment target is achieved. We predict the second semester of the activity more often so that the investment target is achieved, "he said.
Investor Daily's note shows that the revenue target of upstream oil and gas sector this year of US $ 11.9 billion is still lower than last year's realization. In 2017, the realization of upstream oil and gas revenues reached US $ 13.1 billion, exceeding the target of APBN-P 2017 of US $ 12.2 billion.
Windfall Profit
Director General of Oil and Gas at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Djoko Siswanto at a hearing with the Commission VII of the House of Representatives (DPR) in Jakarta recently revealed that the government received an unexpected windfall profit of Rp 300 billion from every crude price increase of US $ 1 per barrel.
Sudden profits that can be used to help the finances of PT Pertamina (Persero) is experiencing pressure because it must bear the burden of the increase cost of procurement of fuel oil (BBM) subsidized. Citing data from the Ministry of Finance Fiscal Policy Office (BKF), Djoko Siswanto explains, every US $ 1 increase in oil prices, state revenues increased by Rp 2.8 trillion to Rp 2.9 trillion. While the subsidy increase reached Rp 2.5 trillion to Rp 2.6 trillion. As a result, there is still a windfall profit of around Rp 300 billion.
"But the government does not directly put the benefits into the state treasury, but will use it to refresh Pertamina's finances," he said.
The government, according to Djoko, has experienced the fluctuation of world oil prices, where the highest price ever reached the level of US $ 100 per barrel with a subsidy burden of about Rp 300 trillion.
"Thus, the government will be more wise to maintain Pertamina's financial stability and availability of fuel," he said.
In addition, the government helps Pertamina's financial condition by submitting eight oil and gas blocks termination to the state-owned oil and gas company.
"Thus, Pertamina gets fresh funding, because without investment but still produce. It is expected to help Pertamina replace the burden of the assignment of fuel, "he said.
As oil prices are still high, Djoko ensures the government can still cope, even if oil prices continue to rise to touch the level of US $ 100 per barrel.
"We already have experience. Hopefully with that experience we can face this, "he asserted.
He revealed, in the past, the depreciation of the rupiah affected the fuel subsidy.
"However, since President Jokowi's administration, the subsidy is not affected by the exchange rate and oil prices," he said.
Djoko said the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources and the Ministry of Finance have agreed to utilize windfall profit as a fund to cover the additional subsidy of diesel fuel. Meanwhile, senior analyst Bina Artha Sekuritas Reza Priyambada said the government could not withstand too long the price of subsidized fuel, despite its goal of keeping inflation levels at a time of price rises.
"The government can not withstand the price of subsidized fuel for the next. World oil prices continue to rise, and one day Indonesia must follow the market price, "said Reza.
Rising crude oil prices, according to Reza, not only gave birth to a dilemma for fuel subsidy policy, but also for the price of non-subsidized fuel. The rise in oil prices could pressure Pertamina to bear the burden of increasing the cost of subsidized fuel procurement, including for BBM Satu Price program.
On the other hand, PT PLN (Persero) will also be affected because the SOE is still using fuel for a number of power plants.
"In fact, Pertamina and SOEs have the obligation to generate profits and one way is to follow the development of global markets. The next concern is who will pay for the adjustment later, "he said.
Highest 4 Years
Based on data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, the average ICP of crude oil in May 2018 reached US $ 72.46 per barrel, up US $ 5.03 per barrel from April 2018 which reached US $ 67.43 per barrel. Meanwhile, ICP Sumatra Light Crude (SLC) reached US $ 73.15 per barrel, up US $ 4.76 per barrel from US $ 68.39 per barrel in the previous month.
The increase in ICP in May 2018 is the highest since the price of Indonesian oil reached US $ 70 per barrel last time in November 2014, "said Head of Communications Services Public Information and Cooperation (KLIK) Ministry of ESDM Agung Pribadi.
According to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, the average increase in ICP is in line with the average price growth of crude oil in international market in May 2018 compared to April 2018. Dated Brent prices rose US $ 5.13 per barrel from US $ 71.80 per the barrel to US $ 76.93 per barrel and Brent (ICE) up US $ 5.24 per barrel from US $ 71.76 per barrel to US $ 77.01 per barrel. At the same time, the price of WTI oil (Nymex) rose US $ 3.66 per barrel from US $ 66.33 per barrel to US $ 69.98 per barrel and OPEC oil basket price rose US $ 5.68 per barrel from US $ 68.43 per barrel to US $ 74.11 per barrel.
Based on the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources record, the main crude oil price increase in the international market was triggered by several factors, including global crude demand. The report by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in May 2018 said demand was expected to increase by 1.65 million bpd to an average of 98.85 million bpd, coming from stronger demand by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) as well as improved demand from non-OECD countries, particularly Asia and Latin America.
In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) report said that demand is expected to increase, especially in the first half of 2018. Causes include cold weather in Europe at the beginning of the year, new petrochemical capacity in the US, and improved global economic conditions. On the other hand, according to the ESDM Ministry report, there is a strong commitment from non-OPEC oil producing countries led by Russia and OPEC members to comply with a crude oil price restructuring deal (the Vienna Accord) to reach 1.8 million bpd.
"It's an effort to reduce global oil stocks," the report said.
Another factor, according to the ESDM Ministry, is market concerns about the potential for disruption of global crude supplies due to geopolitical turmoil. Causes of geopolitical turmoil include the US decision to break out of a nuclear arms restriction agreement signed in 2015 by Iran with China, France, Germany, Russia, Britain and the United States. In addition, re-enacting economic sanctions against Iran has a negative impact on the prospects for growth in the country's crude oil demand.
Another cause is the imposition of additional sanctions for Venezuela after Nicolas Maduro re-elected as President. It has been criticized internationally as an autocracy, potentially further reducing the supply and export of Venezuela's crude oil which has fallen by a third in the past two years.
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources stated that the increase in US and Asian refinery processing activities with utilization rate reaches 90% of the refinery capacity, also affecting oil prices.
"For the Asia Pacific region, the rise in crude oil prices is also influenced by high economic growth in India and PRC, fueling increased demand for oil in the industrial and transportation sectors. In addition, the level of oil processing of PRC and India is still strong, "said the study of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources.
IN INDONESIA
Hulu Migas Surplus US$ 6,9 Miliar
Penerimaan sektor hulu minyak dan gas bumi (migas) hingga Mei 2018 mencapai US$ 6,9 miliar atau 58% dari target yang ditetapkan dalam Anggaran Pendapatan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2018 sebesar US$ 11,9 miliar. Membaiknya harga minyak dunia menjadi salah satu faktor dalam mencapai target penerimaan hulu migas tahun ini.
“Dari sisi hulu, kita surplus. Posisi penerimaan negara seluruhnya US$ 6,9 miliar. Itu berasal dari total revenue dipotong cost recovery, sisanya dibagi antara pemerintah dan kontraktor, ditambah pajak. Artinya kalau ditanya selisih antara penerimaan dan biaya produksi, posisinya sekarang surplus,” kata Kepala Satuan Kerja Khusus Pelaksana Kegiatan Usaha Hulu Minyak dan Gas Bumi (SKK Migas) Amien Sunaryadi.
Menurut dia, penerimaan negara tersebut sepenuhnya masuk ke APBN. Dalam APBN 2018, asumsi harga minyak mentah Indonesia (Indonesia crude price/ ICP) ditetapkan US$ 48 per barel. Sedang produksi lifting migas ditetapkan 2 juta barel setara minyak per hari (bsmph) , terdiri atas minyak mentah 800 ribu barel per hari (bph) dan gas bumi 1,2 juta bsmph.
Ditanya perihal anggaran untuk subsidi bahan bakar minyak (BBM), Kepala SKK Migas Amien Sunaryadi mengatakan, hal itu sepenuhnya merupakan kewenangan pemerintah.
“Dari kami, sisi hulu menyetorkan pedapatan ke APBN. Selanjutnya terserah pemerintah akan dialokasikan ke mana,” ujar dia.
Disinggung soal dampak penerapan mekanisme bagi hasil kotor (gross split) terhadap iklim investasi migas, Amien Sunaryadi memastikan investor menyambut baik kebijakan tersebut.
“Ada yang mengatakan gross split menjadikan investor tidak tertarik, itu tidak tepat,” tegas dia.
Amien mencontohkan, sejak Januari sampai Juni tahun ini, ada lima perusahaan yang menandatangani kontrak dengan skema gross split. Itu sudah bagus. Bandingkan sejak 2015 sudah terminasi 80 Wilayah kerja (WK), berarti kontrak dahulu tidak perform,” kata dia.
Dia yakin, dengan adanya penandatanganan kontrak-kontrak baru saat ini, dalam 5-10 tahun ke depan lifting minyak nasional meningkat, sejalan dengan banyaknya temuan baru.
Kepala Divisi Program dan Komunikasi SKK Migas Wisnu Prabawa Taher menambahkan, capaian lifting migas selama Januari hingga Mei 2018 mencapai 1,916 juta bsmph. Realisasi itu sekitar 96% dari target lifting migas yang ditetapkan dalam APBN sebanyak 2 juta bsmph. Dia menjelaskan, dari 1,916 juta bsmph, realisasi lifting minyak mencapai 758 ribu bph, atau sekitar 95% dari target 800 ribu bph. Sedangkan realisasi lifting gas mencapai 1,158 juta bsmph, sekitar 97% dari target 1,2 juta bsmph.
Wisnu mengungkapkan, PT Chevron Pacific Indonesia memproduksi minyak paling banyak, mencapai 212.316 bph. Jumlah itu sedikit lebih rendah dari target 213.551 bph (99,42%). Adapun capaian gas terbesar berasal dari BP Berau Ltd (Tangguh) sebanyak 1,03 juta MMSCFD atau 104% dari target 1 juta.
“Untuk pencapaian dana pengembalian biaya operasi (cost recovery) sampai akhir Mei sudah US$ 4,7 miliar atau 47% dari target APBN 2018,” tutur dia.
Wisnu Prabawa juga mengemukakan, realisasi investasi migas pada Januari-Mei 2018 mencapai US$ 3,7 miliar, sekitar 26% dari target tahun ini sebesar US$ 14,2 miliar.
“Realisasi rendah karena sejumlah program menunggu jadwal onstream. Misalnya kegiatan pengeboran masih menunggu kesiapan lahan. Tapi kami tetap optimistis target investasi tahun ini tercapai. Kami prediksi pada semester kedua kegiatan lebih sering sehingga target investasi tercapai,” papar dia.
Catatan Investor Daily menunjukkan, target penerimaan sektor hulu migas tahun ini sebesar US$ 11,9 miliar masih lebih rendah dibanding realisasi tahun lalu. Pada 2017, realisasi penerimaan sektor hulu migas mencapai US$ 13,1 miliar, melampaui target APBN-P 2017 sebesar US$ 12,2 miliar.
Windfall Profit
Dirjen Migas Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) Djoko Siswanto dalam rapat dengar pendapat (RDP) dengan Komisi VII Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (DPR) di Jakarta, baru-baru ini, mengungkapkan, pemerintah mendapat keuntungan tidak terduga (windfall profit) sebesar Rp 300 miliar dari setiap kenaikan harga minyak mentah sebesar US$ 1 per barel.
Keuntungan mendadak itu bisa digunakan untuk membantu keuangan PT Pertamina (Persero) yang mengalami tekanan karena harus menanggung beban kenaikan biaya pengadaaan Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM) bersubsidi. Mengutip data Badan Kebijakan Fiskal (BKF) Kementerian Keuangan (Kemenkeu), Djoko Siswanto menjelaskan, setiap US$ 1 kenaikan harga minyak, penerimaan negara bertambah Rp 2,8 triliun sampai Rp 2,9 triliun. Sedangkan peningkatan subsidi mencapai Rp 2,5 triliun sampai Rp 2,6 triliun. Alhasil, masih ada windfall profit sekitar Rp 300 miliar.
“Tapi pemerintah tidak langsung memasukkan keuntungan tersebut ke kas negara, melainkan akan menggunakannya untuk menyegarkan keuangan Pertamina,” tutur dia.
Pemerintah, menurut Djoko, sudah berpengalaman menghadapi fluktuasi harga minyak dunia, di mana harga paling tinggi pernah mencapai level US$ 100 per barel dengan beban subsidi sekitar Rp 300 triliun.
“Dengan demikian, pemerintah akan lebih bijak menjaga stabilitas keuangan Pertamina dan ketersediaan BBM,” ujar dia.
Selain itu pemerintah membantu kondisi keuangan Pertamina dengan menyerahkan delapan blok migas terminasi kepada BUMN migas tersebut.
“Dengan begitu, Pertamina mendapat dana segar, sebab tanpa investasi tetapi tetap berproduksi. Itu diharapkan membantu pertamina mengganti beban penugasan BBM,” ucap dia.
Seiring harga minyak yang masih tinggi, Djoko memastikan pemerintah masih bisa mengatasinya, bahkan jika harga minyak terus naik hingga menyentuh level US$ 100 per barel.
“Kita sudah punya pengalaman. Semoga dengan pengalaman itu kita bisa menghadapi ini,” tegas dia.
Dia mengungkapkan, pada masa lalu, depresiasi rupiah berpengaruh kepada subsidi BBM.
“Namun, sejak pemerintahan Presiden Jokowi, subsidi tidak terpengaruh kurs dan harga minyak,” kata dia.
Djoko mengatakan, Kementerian ESDM dan Kementerian Keuangan telah sepakat untuk memanfaatkan windfall profit sebagai dana untuk menutupi pemberian tambahan subsidi solar. Sementara itu, analis senior Bina Artha Sekuritas Reza Priyambada mengatakan pemerintah tidak bisa menahan terlalu lama harga BBM bersubsidi, walaupun tujuannya untuk menjaga tingkat inflasi di saat tekanan kenaikan harga.
“Pemerintah tidak bisa menahan harga BBM bersubsidi untuk seterusnya. Harga minyak dunia terus naik, dan suatu saat Indonesia harus mengikuti harga pasar,” ujar Reza.
Kenaikan harga minyak mentah, menurut Reza, bukan hanya melahirkan dilema bagi kebijakan subsidi BBM, tapi juga bagi harga BBM nonsubsidi. Kenaikan harga minyak bisa menekan Pertamina yang harus menanggung beban kenaikan biaya pengadaaan BBM bersubsidi, termasuk untuk program BBM Satu Harga.
Di sisi lain, PT PLN (Persero) juga bakal terkena dampaknya karena BUMN tersebut masih menggunakan BBM untuk sejumlah pembangkit listriknya.
“Padahal, Pertamina dan BUMN punya kewajiban menghasilkan profit dan salah satu caranya adalah dengan mengikuti perkembangan pasar global. Kekhawatiran selanjutnya adalah siapa yang akan membayar untuk penyesuaian itu nanti,” kata dia.
Tertinggi 4 Tahun
Berdasarkan data Kementerian ESDM, rata-rata ICP minyak mentah pada Mei 2018 mencapai US$ 72,46 per barel, naik US$ 5,03 per barel dari April 2018 yang mencapai US$ 67,43 per barel. Sedangkan ICP Sumatera Light Crude (SLC) mencapai US$ 73,15 per barel, naik US$ 4,76 per barel dari US$ 68,39 per barel pada bulan sebelumnya.
Peningkatan ICP Mei 2018 merupakan yang tertinggi sejak harga minyak Indonesia mencapai US$ 70 per barel terakhir kali pada November 2014," kata Kepala Biro Komunikasi Layanan Informasi Publik dan Kerja Sama (KLIK) Kementerian ESDM Agung Pribadi.
Hasil kajian Kementerian ESDM menyebutkan, peningkatan rata-rata ICP tersebut sejalan dengan perkembangan harga rata-rata minyak mentah utama di pasar internasional pada Mei 2018 dibandingkan April 2018. Harga Dated Brent naik US$ 5,13 per barel dari US$ 71,80 per barel menjadi US$ 76,93 per barel dan Brent (ICE) naik US$ 5,24 per barel dari US$ 71,76 per barel menjadi US$ 77,01 per barel. Seiring dengan itu, harga minyak WTI (Nymex) naik US$ 3,66 per barel dari US$ 66,33 per barel menjadi US$ 69,98 per barel dan harga minyak basket OPEC naik US$ 5,68 per barel dari US$ 68,43 per barel menjadi US$ 74,11 per barel.
Berdasarkan catatan Kementerian ESDM, kenaikan harga minyak mentah utama di pasar internasional dipicu beberapa faktor, di antaranya permintaan minyak mentah global. Laporan Organisasi Negara-negara Pengekspor Minyak (OPEC) pada Mei 2018 menyebutkan, permintaan diperkirakan meningkat 1,65 juta bph menjadi rata-rata 98,85 juta bph, yang berasal dari menguatnya permintaan negara-negara Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) serta perbaikan permintaan dari negara-negara non-OECD, terutama wilayah Asia dan Amerika Latin.
Selain itu, laporan International Energy Agency (IEA) mengungkapkan, permintaan diperkirakan meningkat, terutama pada semester I-2018. Penyebabnya antara lain cuaca dingin di Eropa pada awal tahun, penambahan kapasitas petrokimia baru di AS, serta kondisi perekonomian global yang membaik.
Di pihak lain, demikian laporan Kementerian ESDM, ada komitmen kuat dari negara-negara produsen minyak non-OPEC yang dipimpin Rusia dan anggota OPEC untuk mematuhi kesepakatan pembatasan produksi minyak mentah (Perjanjian Wina) hingga mencapai 1,8 juta bph.
“Itu sebagai upaya mengurangi stok minyak global yang tinggi," demikian laporan tersebut.
Faktor lainnya, menurut Kementerian ESDM, adalah kekhawatiran pasar terhadap potensi terganggunya pasokan minyak mentah global akibat gejolak geopolitik. Penyebab gejolak geopolitik di antaranya keputusan AS untuk keluar dari perjanjian pembatasan senjata nuklir yang ditandatangani pada 2015 oleh Iran dengan RRT, Prancis, Jerman, Rusia, Inggris, dan AS. Kecuali itu, pemberlakuan kembali sanksi ekonomi terhadap Iran berdampak negatif pada prospek pertumbuhan permintaan minyak mentah negara itu.
Penyebab lainnya yaitu pengenaan sanksi tambahan bagi Venezuela setelah Nicolas Maduro terpilih kembali sebagai Presiden. Hal itu dikecam dunia internasional sebagai otokrasi, sehingga berpotensi semakin menurunkan pasokan dan ekspor minyak mentah Venezuela yang telah turun hingga sepertiga dalam dua tahun terakhir.
Kementerian ESDM menyatakan, peningkatan aktivitas kilang pengolahan AS dan Asia dengan tingkat pemanfaatan mencapai 90% dari kapasitas kilang, juga turut memengaruhi harga minyak.
“Untuk kawasan Asia Pasifik, kenaikan harga minyak mentah juga dipengaruhi kondisi pertumbuhan perekonomian di India dan RRT yang tinggi, sehingga mendorong peningkatan permintaan minyak di sektor industri dan transportasi. Selain itu, tingkat pengolahan minyak RRT dan India masih kuat,” demikian kajian Kementerian ESDM.
Investor Daily, Page-9, Saturday, June 9, 2018
