The government's dream to restore the glory of upstream oil and gas by targeting oil production of 1 million barrels per day by 2030 needs to be supported by concrete steps through policy or fiscal stimulus.
The hope of increasing oil production is certainly not an easy job. Moreover, the national upstream oil and gas sector is faced with a decline in natural oil production. In the BP Statistical Review 2019, national oil production decreased by 3.5% in 2018 or above the average decline over the past 10 years by 1.5%.
This year's production realization is even expected to decrease by more than 20,000 BPD compared to 2018. Oil production as of October 2019 was recorded at 750,500 BPD, while at the end of 2018 it was recorded at 778,000 BPD. From these data, the hope of oil production returning to reach 1 million BPD needs concrete steps.
For example, there is an equivalent finding of the Banyu Urip Field. Heading there, the Special Task Force for Upstream Oil and Gas Business Activities (SKK Migas) campaigned for four pillars of the long-term strategy to achieve the production target of 1 million BPD.
The four pillars are maintaining current production, transforming resources into production, implementing advanced oil recovery (EOR), to massive exploration activities.
Feeling that they did not want to lose before the war, SKK Migas was optimistic that the target would be achieved. Moreover, the opportunity for the national oil and gas industry is still large. This can be seen from a total of 128 sedimentary basins in Indonesia, only 54 of which have been explored and whose production is still 19 basins.
Thus there are still 74 basins waiting to be explored and 35 basins that have been explored are expected to find oil and gas reserves through continuous exploration and investment in the basin.
SKK Migas Planning Deputy Jafee Suadin revealed that by looking at the current conditions, the four efforts need to be carried out in parallel. According to him, it is difficult to rely solely on advanced drainage technology (EOR) or wait for the discovery of a new giant oil block.
"Our anchor effort is 1 million BPD. The target is a combination of EOR technology, the discovery of new reserves, and transformation of reserves into
production, "he said.
Regarding the implementation of the EOR, the government considers this to be a solution so that oil production is again attractive. Because, based on the results of a coordination meeting chaired by the Coordinating Minister for Maritime and Investment Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, EOR is expected to provide an additional 1.6 billion barrels of oil production.
Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan
Maritime and Investment Coordinating Minister Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan said, his party had discussed efforts to increase oil production through EOR activities with oil and gas companies operating in Indonesia. He requested that the oil and gas company identify the potential EOR in oil and gas blocks in Indonesia.
"We have data that there are 1.6 billion barrels that can be produced from EOR activities," he said.
ECONOMY
However, is the production of 1.6 billion barrels using EOR already very economical? This is what seems to influence businesses to count and think again to run the EOR. Executive Director of the Reforminer Institute Komaidi Notonegoro said if the government only prioritizes production without thinking about business factors, then it is difficult for business actors to carry out further stages of drainage. According to him, the implementation of EOR is useless but it is carried out with lifting costs more expensive compared to oil imports.
"If the barrel production is more expensive than imports, will it also be a business decision? If it is seen as a driver of energy independence okay, "he said.
At present, the potential of EOR in Indonesia is spread over 129 oil fields consisting of 15 work areas. Until the middle of the year, the EOR's definite work commitment was the only US $ 446 million.
Acting Director-General of Oil and Gas at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Djoko Siswanto added that the acceleration of EOR can be done by applying this technology to several wells, not one field at a time. According to him, this step is in accordance with the proposal from the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB).
the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB).
"So it is injected first, closed for a while, and then the oil will come out, per well. The Minister wants which wells are, what fields the program is, and what obstacles, it will be reported on January 25, 2020, "he said.
Some studies have indeed been carried out by oil and gas contractors that have carried out EOR activities. Unfortunately, this EOR activity has not yet been massive. The government hopes that these activities will produce results, such as those carried out in the Rokan Block, the Offshore North West Java Block (ONWJ), the Rimau Block, and several fields managed by PT Pertamina EP.
Some studies have indeed been carried out by oil and gas contractors that have carried out EOR activities. Unfortunately, this EOR activity has not yet been massive. The government hopes that these activities will produce results, such as those carried out in the Rokan Block, the North West Java (ONWJ) Block, the Rimau Block, and several fields managed by PT Pertamina EP.
"The great potential of EOR is in Rokan Block with Pertamina EP, then in Zulu [ONWJ Block] PHE [Pertamina Hulu Energi], the same in Medco, namely Rimau Block, Kaji-Harapan Field," he added.
IN INDONESIA
Kala berlari pontang-panting Kejar 1 Juta Bph
Mimpi pemerintah untuk mengembalikan kejayaan hulu minyak dan gas bumi dengan menargetkan produksi minyak sebesar 1 juta barel per hari pada 2030 perlu didukung dengan langkah konkret lewat kebijakan ataupun stimulus fiskal.
Harapan penaikan produksi minyak tentu bukan pekerjaan mudah. Apalagi sektor hulu migas nasional dihadapkan dengan penurunan produksi minyak alamiah. Dalam BP Statistical Review 2019, produksi minyak nasional menurun sebanyak 3,5% pada 2018 atau di atas rata-rata penurunan selama 10 tahun terakhir sebesar 1,5%.
Realisasi produksi tahun ini bahkan diperkirakan mengecil lebih dari 20.000 bph dibandingkan dengan 2018. Produksi minyak per Oktober 2019 tercatat sebesar 750.500 bph, sedangkan pada akhir 2018 tercatat sebesar 778.000 bph. Dari data tersebut, harapan produksi minyak kembali mencapai 1 juta bph perlu langkah konkret.
Misalnya saja, ada penemuan setara Lapangan Banyu Urip. Menuju ke sana, Satuan Kerja Khusus Pelaksana Kegiatan Usaha Hulu Minyak dan Gas Bumi (SKK Migas) mengampanyekan empat pilar strategi jangka panjang untuk mencapai target produksi 1 juta bph tersebut.
Empat pilar tersebut yakni menjaga produksi yang ada sekarang, transformasi resource menjadi produksi, implementasi pengurasan minyak tahap lanjut (enhanced oil recovery/EOR), hingga aktivitas eksplorasi yang masif.
Merasa tidak ingin kalah sebelum berperang, SKK Migas optimistis target tersebut tercapai. Terlebih, peluang industri migas nasional masih besar. Hal itu terlihat dari total sebanyak 128 cekungan sedimen yang ada di Indonesia, hanya 54 cekungan yang telah dieksplorasi dan yang berproduksi masih 19 cekungan.
Dengan demikian masih ada 74 cekungan yang menunggu untuk dieksplorasi serta 35 cekungan yang telah dieksplorasi diharapkan dapat ditemukan cadangan migas melalui eksplorasi dan investasi yang terus menerus di cekungan tersebut.
Deputi Perencanaan SKK Migas Jafee Suadin mengungkapkan dengan melihat kondisi terkini, empat upaya tersebut perlu dijalankan secara pararel. Menurutnya, sulit hanya mengandalkan teknologi pengurasan tahap lanjut (EOR), atau menanti adanya temuan blok minyak raksasa baru.
“Anchor effort kami 1 juta bph. Target tersebut merupakan perpaduan antara teknologi EOR, penemuan cadangan baru, dan transformasi cadangan menjadi
produksi,” katanya.
Terkait dengan penerapan EOR, pemerintah menganggap hal ini menjadi solusi agar produksi minyak kembali menarik. Pasalnya, berdasarkan hasil rapat koordinasi yang dipimpin oleh Menteri Koordinator Maritim dan Investasi Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, EOR diharapkan bisa memberikan tambahan produksi minyak 1,6 miliar barel.
Menteri Koordinator Kemaritiman dan Investasi Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan menuturkan, pihaknya sudah membahas upaya menaikkan produksi minyak melalui kegiatan EOR ini bersama perusahaan-perusahaan migas yang beroperasi di Indonesia. Pihaknya meminta agar perusahaan migas mengidentifikasi potensi-potensi EOR yang ada di blok-blok migas di Indonesia.
“Kami punya data ada 1,6 miliar barel yang bisa diproduksikan dari kegiatan EOR,” katanya.
KEEKONOMIAN
Hanya saja, apakah produksi 1,6 miliar barel menggunakan EOR sudah sangat ekonomis? Hal inilah yang rasanya memengaruhi pelaku usaha berhitung dan dan berfikir ulang untuk menjalankan EOR. Direktur Eksekutif Reforminer Institute Komaidi Notonegoro mengatakan jika pemerintah hanya mengutamakan produksi tanpa memikirkan faktor bisnis, maka pelaku usaha sulit melakukan pengurasan tahap lanjut. Menurutnya, percuma saja implementasi EOR tetapi dijalankan dengan biaya lifting lebih mahal dibandingkan dengan impor minyak.
“Kalau produksi per barelnya lebih mahal dari impor, apakah juga akan menjadi keputusan bisnis? Kalau dilihat sebagai pendorong kemandirian energi oke-lah,” katanya.
Saat ini, potensi EOR di Indonesia tersebar di 129 lapangan minyak yang terdiri dari 15 Wilayah kerja. Hingga pertengahan tahun komitmen kerja pasti EOR hanya sebesar US$446 juta. Pelaksana Tugas Direktur Jenderal Minyak dan Gas Bumi Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) Djoko Siswanto menambahkan percepatan EOR ini bisa dilakukan dengan menerapkan teknologi ini untuk beberapa sumur, tidak satu lapangan sekaligus. Menurutnya, langkah ini sesuai usulan dari Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB).
“Jadi diinjeksi dulu, ditutup sebentar, terus nanti keluar minyaknya, per sumur pelaksanaannya. Pak Menteri inginnya sumur mana saja, lapangan mana saja program-nya apa, dan kendalanya apa, itu nanti dilaporkan pada 25 Januari 2020,” ujarnya.
Beberapa studi memang sudah dilakukan kontraktor migas yang telah melaksanakan kegiatan EOR. Sayangnya, kegiatan EOR ini belum masif. Pemerintah berharap aktivitas ini membuahkan hasil, seperti yang dilakukan di Blok Rokan, Blok Offshore North West Java (ONWJ), Blok Rimau, dan beberapa lapangan yang dikelola oleh PT Pertamina EP.
“Yang besar potensi EOR kan ada di Blok Rokan dengan Pertamina EP, kemudian di Zulu [Blok ONWJ] PHE [Pertamina Hulu Energi], sama di Medco yaitu Blok Rimau, Lapangan Kaji-Semoga,” tambahnya.
Bisnis Indonesia, Page-24, Monday, 9 Dec 2019
